If youre thinking of betting on NFL Draft odds for the No. 1 overall pick, dont waste your time.Â
At -20000 odds â meaning it takes a $200 bet to win one dollar â Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite. The Indiana quarterback is practically signed, sealed and delivered to the Las Vegas Raiders.
But things get more interesting from there.
“When someone is that big a favorite, the conversation seems to shift to pick No. 2. And it has,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “Thats the most-bet prop, the biggest-bet market right now.”
Feazel helps break down the most notable 2026 NFL Draft odds, ahead of the Thursday-Saturday event in Pittsburgh.
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Information Age
Before addressing the No. 2 overall pick, its first worth noting how NFL Draft betting differs from what bookmakers typically face.
“In the trading department, we like to use math,” Feazel said, alluding to how odds are set for games. “But the NFL Draft is information-based. When a bet comes in on information, the difficulty is deciding whether its a rumor or if the bettor on the other side has information. And whether a rumor is true or not.
“When you take math out of the equation, it normally isnt that helpful to us.”
Sharp bettors often heavily engage in NFL Draft odds, and they tend to do well. Its a tough event for sportsbooks to win.
“We have won sometimes, and were certainly trying to win. But were not expecting a lot of the information to go our way,” Feazel said.
Two-Man Battle
The No. 2 overall pick is still very much in flux, although its clearly a two-man battle between Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese and Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey.
Its so close, in fact, that as of Tuesday afternoon, Reese and Bailey are -115 co-favorites at Caesars. After those two, odds stretch out to +6000 for Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles.
No surprise, information is affecting this NFL prop bet.
“It was starting to look like David Bailey was gonna be the No. 2 pick, so we moved him to the favorite. But then it was thought that the Jets were maybe trying to trade the pick,” Feazel said.
Dont be surprised if Reese and Baileys odds continue to be volatile. And if a trade happens at No. 2, things could get much murkier.
“There could be someone whos not even expected to be in the mix,” Feazel said.
QBs or Not QBs
Among the slew of NFL Draft prop bets available, one of the most popular is on the number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
This year, the expectations are quite low. Pretty much every sportsbook has the Over/Under at 1.5. However, the Over 1.5 is a growing favorite, now at odds of -225, with Under 1.5 a +175 underdog.
Mendoza is obviously a lock. The deciding factor is whether Alabama QB <a href="https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/
