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6 months to midterms: The Senate seats that could tip the balance of power

Last updated: May 4, 2026 5:41 pm
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6 months to midterms: The Senate seats that could tip the balance of power
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With six months to go until this year’s midterm elections, the (NRSC) chair, Sen. Tim Scott, says he believes the GOP can not only hold but expand its current 53–47 majority.

“There’s no doubt the climate has gotten more and more difficult by the day,” Scott acknowledged in a recent Fox News Digital interview. But he emphasized he remains “incredibly optimistic” heading into the midterms as he defends the GOP’s Senate majority.

Republicans — as the party currently in power — were already up against traditional political headwinds that lead to a loss of congressional seats. Add to that the challenging climate fueled by persistent inflation, rising gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, and President s underwater approval ratings.

Scott’s rival and counterpart at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), Sen. Gillibrand, is also optimistic that is also optimistic, that Democrats can flip the chamber. Gillibrand told Fox News Digital earlier this year she sees “all the makings of a blue wave.”

Here’s a look at the 10 most likely to flip and potentially flip the balance of power in the chamber.

Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election for a sixth six-year term in blue-leaning Maine.

Collins is the only Republican senator running for re-election this year in a state that then-Vice President carried in her 2024 presidential election defeat to Trump. And Collins has seen a deterioration of her poll numbers among Mainers from her last re-election six years ago.

But Collins, who has long been a top DSCC target, has proven tough to beat.

Facing Collins will likely be veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner, the all-but-certain Democratic nominee after two-term Gov. Janet Mills dropped out of the race last week. Platner is backed by progressive champions Sens. of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

Republican groups supporting Collins are already blasting Platner over controversial comments he made over a decade ago on Reddit about rape, and a well-publicized tattoo on his chest that resembled a Nazi symbol.

Republicans are defending an open seat in the southeastern battleground state, with GOP Sen. Thom Tillis retiring at the end of this year.

Democrats landed their top recruit when former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper launched a Senate campaign last summer. Cooper enjoys tons of name ID in North Carolina and is 6-0 when running statewide races.

Republicans are rallying around former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley, who has the president’s backing.

The Cook Report, a top nonpartisan political handicapper, recently shifted the race from toss-up to lean Democrat.

Democrats scored another major recruiting victory when former longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown announced he would challenge Republican Sen. Jon Husted.

A former lieutenant governor, Husted was appointed to the Senate a year ago after then-Sen. J.D. Vance stepped down to serve as vice president.

Ohio, once a premier general election battleground, has turned red over the past decade, and Democrats view Brown as their only competitive candidate in the race to serve the final two years of Vance’s term.

Brown lost re-election in 2024 by roughly four points while Trump carried Ohio by 11 points.

But the Cook Report last month shifted its ranking from lean Republican to toss-up, noting that “even recent GOP polling” has indicated the race is all knotted up.

Republicans view first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democrat seeking re-election in 2026.

But Ossoff has built a massive war chest while the GOP faces a nasty three-way primary battle for its nomination in the crucial south

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