With the and the NBA Finals starting this week, the attention has drifted away from the diamond. However, that also might mean the bookmakers have opened the door for us to steal some wins. College basketball, for example, starts when football is most prominent, so we typically get some good lines to play. I think Ive found a good line here as the Dodgers play the Diamondbacks.
The are the team everyone loves to hate. I just dont get it. Why hate on a team for doing everything they can to win a championship? Baseball is one of the most common sports for adding via trades or free agency, so everyone “buys” a championship rather than building one. Even with the 2016 Cubs (who had at least six homegrown pieces prominent in their roster), the biggest piece to their championship run was Jon Lester, signed as a free agent. My point is, this is mostly jealousy because it is working. The Mets are doing the same thing, but they suck, so no one cares.
Tonight, the Dodgers send out Justin Wrobleski. He is a guy that they called up and have developed. That development is paying off this season. Wrobleski is 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP for the year. I bet against him in his last start, and that turned out to be a disaster as he went seven innings and allowed just one hit, a solo homer. Diamondbacks hitters are doing well against him in just 12 at-bats. They have six hits, but just one for extra bases.
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The are above .500 and probably performing better than expected this season. Last year, they sold off pieces at the deadline to try to build for future seasons. However, the team is hitting well enough to deal with missing those pieces. Surprisingly, the team is 32-29 for the year and 19-12 at home. They don’t do anything on offense especially well. Arizona is batting .242 for the season, which is 14th in the league. They are 27th in homers but 13th in runs, which isn’t great, but does prove they manufacture runs rather than rely on just power to score.
Their pitching staff is also right in the middle at 15th in the league. They currently have a 4.04 ERA as a team. Ryne Nelson, their starter for today, is probably one of those guys who needs to make some adjustments to help lower the team ERA. He is 2-4 for the year with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has been rocked at home this year to the tune of a 5.97 ERA in Arizona. The Dodgers are hitting 19-for-98 against him, so he does at least have decent success against them.
It might be a bit of a long shot, but betting on to have a bad game is actually an option here. The guy is 2-for-15 against Nelson with five strikeouts. Max Muncy is even worse, going 0-for-9 with six punch outs. Andy Pages is 1-for-14 with four strikeouts. Plenty of options for player props if you want to fade the Dodgers.
For the actual play in tonight’s game, I am going to back the Dodgers on the moneyline at -137. I don’t find Los Angeles at this price often, but that’s not the only reason to bet it. Wrobleski has been good with a minor blip before his Phillies start. Nelson has been bad, even if he has had past success against the Dodgers. You might call the Dodgers due to get to Nelson. If he were a better pitcher, I’d trust these results, but he isn’t. Give me the Dodgers.
