Democrats taking the Senate? Seriously? Despite Trumps sinking polls, its probably a media fantasy

Lets not get carried away here.

The Democrats chances of winning are somewhere between nearly impossible and non-existent.

And yet its suddenly the subject of considerable media chatter.

Its like a Rube Goldberg contraption: If this happens and that happens and this other long-shot thing somehow falls into place, the ball ends up in the cup.

Virtually everyone, including many Republicans Ive spoken to privately, agrees that the Democrats will take the House in November. The margin may not be huge, given that most incumbents win reelection, but having the opposition party control the floor, the committees and a blizzard of investigations would utterly change the last two years of presidency.

The latest NBC poll has 63 percent of those surveyed strongly or somewhat disapproving of Trumps job performance, and 67 percent strongly or somewhat disapproving of his handling of the Iran war. Ouch.

But now mainstream pundits are so absorbed by such sinking poll numbers, and the wars unpopularity, that they believe Democrats can walk on water and quite possibly ride that flood into Senate control.

Theyre even talking .

I mean, come on. Remember the endless puffery around Beto ORourke, who lost for Senate and governor? Texas hasnt elected a Democrat statewide since the 1990s. And yet every couple of years we get “this is it! Texas is ready to turn blue!”

I know, Democratic contender James Talarico has raised truckloads of money since CBS refused to air his Stephen Colbert interview.  

And in politics you can never say never.

Much will depend on whether Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP runoff. Cornyn is viewed by many Republicans as too moderate. But Paxton was impeached (then acquitted) of charges including bribery in 2023, settled criminal fraud charges by paying restitution, and divorced by his wife who said hed had an affair.

So yeah, its a crazy year.

And yeah, if the war is over, much will depend on the economy bouncing back – a tired cliché that happens to be true.

The New York Times examines the question in a piece so loaded down with caveats that its corporate butt is fully covered:  

“A blue wave is not guaranteed, of course, and Democrats would not be assured to flip two reliably Republican states even if it were. But a feasible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus.”

Thats called tiptoeing into the water. The carefully crafted Nate Cohn piece admits that Democratic candidates would have to win seven out of seven competitive races. Seven out of seven!

I mean, thats as likely as the world getting to see the dark side of the moon.

Uh, lets try another analogy.

Seven out of seven is less likely than winning the lottery. 

Its less likely than gas prices suddenly sinking. Which is why Trump contradicted Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who told CNN that gas prices below $3 a gallon “might not happen till next year.”

“Totally wrong,” says the president.

So heres the rundown.

Every Dem in the Senate today represents a state that carried in 2020, because the party has fared so poorly in red states. (One example: When West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, who drove Biden crazy, retired, he was replaced by Republican Jim Justice.) 

And – heres another Times caveat! – no party has managed to flip even two states that leaned the other way politically since 2008.

The assessment basically rests on the quality of the Democratic candidates heading into the midterms.

In North Carolina, thats former governor Roy Cooper.

In Ohio, its former senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024 during the Trump victory.

In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola is already ahead in the polls.

. The