Senate Republicans might survive the blue thunderstorm. Uh, I think.

With everyone and his brother predicting that a blue tsunami will wash over the Senate as well as the House, I want to write something contrarian. 

This way, if the Republicans do hang on to , Ill get credit for defying the conventional wisdom. And if they dont, I wont get kicked out of the punditocracy – folks will just say well, he put a lot of caveats in there.

The truth is, I dont know who is going to capture the upper chamber, and neither do you. 

And neither do all the pontificators and speculators online or on the air. 

I do know the GOP is pouring tens of millions into contests they might otherwise lose, giving their people – even scandal-scarred – a huge advantage on the airwaves in the final two weeks. But money doesnt always move voters once theyve made up their minds in this era of early voting. 

Is Maines Susan Collins liked enough to hang one more time against aggressive Troy Jackson (and thankfully not weirdo Graham Platner), when shouts every day Pretend Im on the ballot?” We got it, Mr. President. 

Josh Turek is an Iowa legislator and also a wheelchair basketball player who suffers from spina bifida. His GOP opponent, Rep. Ashley Hinton, says she doesnt want “endless wars” but welcomes a Trump visit. 

Shes talked about such issues as open borders and transgender surgery. Turek has focused on the Iran war and soaring health premiums because Congress failed to amend the .

In nearby Kansas, where Trump campaigned yesterday, Democrat Adam Hamilton is the founder of a Methodist mega-church, which would seem like a big plus in that conservative state, but some Dems are turned off by the religious aspect. Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, an obstetrician who served in the Army Reserves, was hurt by a New York Times report on him suing patients who were behind on their bills.

By the way, did you ever think youd see the day when the Republicans just gave up on North Carolina and steered their money elsewhere (conceding the win to former Gov. Roy Cooper)?

So I can conclude three things: 

Many of these races have 1-or-2 point “leads,” which is within the margin of error, and polling is often inaccurate in an off-year election.

The GOP is playing defense in ruby-red states–Trump in Kansas?—which is why Democrats are increasingly confident this is their big year.

And, in the famous Tip ONeill saying, all politics is local.

There may be a mega-church guy or a man in a wheelchair or ex-Alaska congresswoman Mary Peltola, a former tribal judge whos for “Fish, Family, Freedom,” but who former staffers say they heard using awful slurs.

How on earth do you handicap races with so many toss-ups?

Of course, Republicans want to make the country believe that all Dems are like Michigan socialist Abdul el-Sayed, who, when asked whether hed provide military aid if Israel was under attack, says he would rather spend the money at home.    

I still think the Democrats will need to have Vegas luck to win enough Senate races to take control. They also have to defend their own turf. But (escape hatch here) Im not saying it couldnt happen.