The start of training camp has prompted a flurry of big extensions. But the most impactful moves, the ones most likely to affect the bottom line this season, were made months ago. Given some time to examine free agency, here are my five riskiest deals and five best bets of the offseason.Â
Contract terms: 3 years, $67.5 million ($45 million guaranteed)
Despite the familiarity between general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan, head coach Jeff Hafley and Willis from their time together in Green Bay, the Dolphins might have drastically overpaid a fifth-year signal-caller with only six pro starts to his name. The spectacular flashes with the Packers have given off some franchise quarterback vibes, but recreating that magic in South Florida could be a challenge for a team in the midst of a rebuild.Â
With Willis also struggling during his initial stint as a QB1 with the Tennessee Titans, the hefty contract and lofty expectations could doom this marriage before it starts. While no one expects the marquee free agent to play like Dan Marino in Miami, the Hall of Fame inductees performance and production have set the standard for a city and franchise that demands a lot from its starting QB.Â
Contract terms: 4 years, $114 million ($84 million guaranteed)
It is rare for a WR2 to seamlessly transition to the WR1 role. Pierce is attempting to defy the odds after inking a lucrative extension to be the No. 1 option in the Colts passing game. Although the fifth-year pro has averaged 20-plus yards per catch in each of the past two seasons, the speedster must put up monster numbers against defenses that will be focused on limiting his impact with “traveling” corners and loaded zones.Â
Considering the daunting challenge Pierce faces as an unproven go-to receiver, all while taking on the opponents top corner and creative tactics, the Colts might experience some buyers remorse if their primary pass-catcher fails to dominate on the perimeter in his new role.Â
Contract terms: 3 years, $42 million ($25 million guaranteed)
The Panthers signed the big-play specialist to a multiyear deal after watching him record five interceptions, one fumble recovery, seven pass breakups, 10 quarterback hits and 81 tackles in 2025 with the Jaguars. Lloyds spectacular final season in Jacksonville overshadowed a topsy-turvy tenure that resulted in the former first-rounder being benched multiple times and the team declining his fifth-year option before his breakout season. While a new scheme and coaching staff found a way to unlock his talents, the fifth-year pro must make a similar transition in Carolina while playing up to lofty expectations and a big contract.Â
With Lloyd earning Pro Bowl honors in 2025 as a part-time player â he typically came off the field on third downs with the Jaguars â the Panthers are hoping that more playing time will result in more splash plays. They’ll need them to justify this deal.Â
Contract terms: 4 years, $96 million ($68 million guaranteed)
The Commanders need for a consistent pass rush prompted general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn to gamble on a “boom-or-bust” sack artist with 30.5 career sacks over five seasons. Although he has amassed 22.5 sacks since 2023, Oweh entered the league as a developmental player with a limited toolbox, leading to some pass rushing droughts that impacted his stat line, particularly his final five games in Baltimore, where he failed to register a sack.Â
With former Chargers DC Jesse Minter finding various ways to create sack chances for Oweh through clever scheming during a partial season in L.A., the Commanders marquee free agent will need defensive coordinator Daronte Jones to tap into his exotic pressures to help the sixth-year pro take advantage of winnable matchups on the edges.Â
Contract terms: 3 years, $58 million ($42 million guaranteed)</p
